A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
