Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
